Brasileirao (W) · Saturday, 3 October 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 52% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts São Paulo W at 38%, the draw at 31% and Corinthians W at 31%, from expected goals of 1.11 and 0.97.
The league sets the starting point. Brasileirao (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. São Paulo W have 13 in 22 this season (5 of 11 at home), Corinthians W 14 in 22 (3 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 22 and 22 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 63%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 35%, from expected goals of 1.11 for São Paulo W and 0.97 for Corinthians W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo W | 22 | 59% | 18% | 50% |
| Corinthians W | 22 | 64% | 55% | 59% |
More: São Paulo W season stats · Corinthians W season stats · Brasileirao (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.