NWSL (W) · Saturday, 3 October 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 51% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Orlando Pride W at 28%, the draw at 27% and San Diego Wave W at 45%, from expected goals of 1.08 and 1.43.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Orlando Pride W have 17 in 26 this season (9 of 13 at home), San Diego Wave W 10 in 26 (5 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 43%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 26 and 26 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.08 for Orlando Pride W and 1.43 for San Diego Wave W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Pride W | 26 | 65% | 38% | 58% |
| San Diego Wave W | 26 | 38% | 23% | 42% |
More: Orlando Pride W season stats · San Diego Wave W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.