National League · Saturday, 3 October 2026. Final score 3–0 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 64% for over 2.5 goals. This game was not captured by our pre-kick-off freeze, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | no pick |
The result model puts Harrogate Town at 71%, the draw at 17% and AFC Hornchurch at 13%, from expected goals of 2.63 and 1.05.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Harrogate Town have 9 in 11 this season (6 of 6 at home), AFC Hornchurch 7 in 11 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 2.63 for Harrogate Town and 1.05 for AFC Hornchurch. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrogate Town | 11 | 82% | 64% | 82% |
| AFC Hornchurch | 11 | 64% | 18% | 36% |
More: Harrogate Town season stats · AFC Hornchurch season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.