J3 League · Saturday, 3 October 2026. Final score 3–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Ehime FC at 63%, the draw at 19% and Thespakusatsu Gunma at 18%, from expected goals of 2.46 and 1.25.
The league sets the starting point. J3 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ehime FC have 6 in 8 this season (4 of 4 at home), Thespakusatsu Gunma 4 in 8 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 72%, from expected goals of 2.46 for Ehime FC and 1.25 for Thespakusatsu Gunma. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ehime FC | 8 | 75% | 50% | 75% |
| Thespakusatsu Gunma | 8 | 50% | 38% | 50% |
More: Ehime FC season stats · Thespakusatsu Gunma season stats · J3 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.