Primera Nacional · Saturday, 3 October 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 35% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 64% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 40% | 60% | No |
The result model puts Deportivo Moron at 65%, the draw at 24% and All Boys at 10%, from expected goals of 1.64 and 0.48.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Deportivo Moron have 17 in 31 this season (7 of 15 at home), All Boys 5 in 31 (4 of 15 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 22%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 31 and 31 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 40% and 24%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 31%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.64 for Deportivo Moron and 0.48 for All Boys. Folding in 30% of that view gives 33%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 36%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Moron | 31 | 55% | 23% | 55% |
| All Boys | 31 | 16% | 6% | 32% |
More: Deportivo Moron season stats · All Boys season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.