Liga F (W) · Saturday, 3 October 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 55% for over 2.5 goals. This game was not captured by our pre-kick-off freeze, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Deportivo de La Coruña W at 27%, the draw at 23% and Atletico Madrid W at 50%, from expected goals of 1.33 and 1.88.
The league sets the starting point. Liga F (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Deportivo de La Coruña W have 1 in 5 this season (0 of 3 at home), Atletico Madrid W 3 in 5 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 51% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.33 for Deportivo de La Coruña W and 1.88 for Atletico Madrid W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo de La Coruña W | 5 | 20% | 0% | 20% |
| Atletico Madrid W | 5 | 60% | 60% | 60% |
More: Deportivo de La Coruña W season stats · Atletico Madrid W season stats · Liga F (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.