Cymru Premier · Saturday, 3 October 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 61% for over 2.5 goals. This game was not captured by our pre-kick-off freeze, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Ammanford AFC at 33%, the draw at 23% and Holywell at 44%, from expected goals of 1.62 and 1.87.
The league sets the starting point. Cymru Premier has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ammanford AFC have 7 in 11 this season (4 of 5 at home), Holywell 8 in 11 (4 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.62 for Ammanford AFC and 1.87 for Holywell. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ammanford AFC | 11 | 64% | 45% | 45% |
| Holywell | 11 | 73% | 64% | 82% |
More: Ammanford AFC season stats · Holywell season stats · Cymru Premier table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.