National League · Saturday, 3 October 2026. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–2). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 55% for over 2.5 goals. This game was not captured by our pre-kick-off freeze, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Aldershot Town at 31%, the draw at 26% and Carlisle at 43%, from expected goals of 1.25 and 1.51.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Aldershot Town have 4 in 11 this season (2 of 5 at home), Carlisle 6 in 11 (1 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.25 for Aldershot Town and 1.51 for Carlisle. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldershot Town | 11 | 36% | 18% | 64% |
| Carlisle | 11 | 55% | 45% | 82% |
More: Aldershot Town season stats · Carlisle season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.