J3 League · Friday, 2 October 2026. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 51% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | no pick |
The result model puts Biwako Shiga at 21%, the draw at 27% and Roasso Kumamoto at 52%, from expected goals of 0.87 and 1.5.
The league sets the starting point. J3 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Biwako Shiga have 7 in 8 this season (3 of 4 at home), Roasso Kumamoto 2 in 8 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 0.87 for Biwako Shiga and 1.5 for Roasso Kumamoto. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biwako Shiga | 8 | 88% | 38% | 50% |
| Roasso Kumamoto | 8 | 25% | 13% | 25% |
More: Biwako Shiga season stats · Roasso Kumamoto season stats · J3 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.