National League · Tuesday, 29 September 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 65% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Yeovil Town at 43%, the draw at 22% and Worthing at 34%, from expected goals of 1.91 and 1.69.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Yeovil Town have 6 in 10 this season (4 of 5 at home), Worthing 8 in 10 (4 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 70%, from expected goals of 1.91 for Yeovil Town and 1.69 for Worthing. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yeovil Town | 10 | 60% | 40% | 80% |
| Worthing | 10 | 80% | 60% | 80% |
More: Yeovil Town season stats · Worthing season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.