National League · Tuesday, 29 September 2026. Final score 2–4 (half-time 2–3). Before kick-off we rated it 59% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Woking at 56%, the draw at 23% and Solihull Moors at 21%, from expected goals of 1.94 and 1.12.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Woking have 4 in 10 this season (3 of 5 at home), Solihull Moors 7 in 10 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.94 for Woking and 1.12 for Solihull Moors. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woking | 10 | 40% | 30% | 50% |
| Solihull Moors | 10 | 70% | 50% | 70% |
More: Woking season stats · Solihull Moors season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.