Primera A · Monday, 28 September 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 61% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Fortaleza FC at 26%, the draw at 30% and Deportes Tolima at 44%, from expected goals of 0.86 and 1.23.
The league sets the starting point. Primera A has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fortaleza FC have 15 in 29 this season (8 of 15 at home), Deportes Tolima 13 in 33 (5 of 15 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 42%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 29 and 33 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 46% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 14%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 35%, from expected goals of 0.86 for Fortaleza FC and 1.23 for Deportes Tolima. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza FC | 29 | 52% | 24% | 72% |
| Deportes Tolima | 33 | 39% | 21% | 52% |
More: Fortaleza FC season stats · Deportes Tolima season stats · Primera A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.