Serie A (W) · Sunday, 27 September 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Inter Milano W at 57%, the draw at 23% and Fiorentina W at 20%, from expected goals of 1.89 and 1.02.
The league sets the starting point. Serie A (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Inter Milano W have 0 in 0 this season, Fiorentina W 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 10 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 70%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.89 for Inter Milano W and 1.02 for Fiorentina W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Milano W | 0 | — | — | — |
| Fiorentina W | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Inter Milano W season stats · Fiorentina W season stats · Serie A (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.