Damallsvenskan (W) · Sunday, 27 September 2026. Final score 3–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 61% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Brommapojkarna W at 13%, the draw at 17% and Malmö FF W at 70%, from expected goals of 1.11 and 2.65.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Brommapojkarna W have 12 in 19 this season (6 of 9 at home), Malmö FF W 9 in 19 (4 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 19 and 19 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 67% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 73%, from expected goals of 1.11 for Brommapojkarna W and 2.65 for Malmö FF W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brommapojkarna W | 19 | 63% | 26% | 53% |
| Malmö FF W | 19 | 47% | 21% | 37% |
More: Brommapojkarna W season stats · Malmö FF W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.