FA WSL (W) · Sunday, 27 September 2026. Final score 3–3 (half-time 2–1). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Birmingham City W at 40%, the draw at 27% and Crystal Palace W at 33%, from expected goals of 1.4 and 1.25.
The league sets the starting point. FA WSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Birmingham City W have 2 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), Crystal Palace W 1 in 3 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.4 for Birmingham City W and 1.25 for Crystal Palace W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham City W | 3 | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| Crystal Palace W | 3 | 33% | 33% | 0% |
More: Birmingham City W season stats · Crystal Palace W season stats · FA WSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.