Primera Clausura · Saturday, 26 September 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 55% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Sportivo Trinidense at 30%, the draw at 28% and Cerro Porteno at 42%, from expected goals of 1.06 and 1.32.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Clausura has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sportivo Trinidense have 7 in 11 this season (2 of 5 at home), Cerro Porteno 5 in 11 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 44%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 40% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.06 for Sportivo Trinidense and 1.32 for Cerro Porteno. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 64% | 18% | 55% |
| Cerro Porteno | 11 | 45% | 9% | 55% |
More: Sportivo Trinidense season stats · Cerro Porteno season stats · Primera Clausura table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.