Vrouwen Eredivisie (W) · Saturday, 26 September 2026. Final score 4–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 63% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts PSV/Eindhoven W at 62%, the draw at 21% and De Graafschap W at 18%, from expected goals of 2.15 and 1.07.
The league sets the starting point. Vrouwen Eredivisie (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 66% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. PSV/Eindhoven W have 3 in 5 this season (1 of 2 at home), De Graafschap W 3 in 5 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 65% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 2.15 for PSV/Eindhoven W and 1.07 for De Graafschap W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV/Eindhoven W | 5 | 60% | 60% | 40% |
| De Graafschap W | 5 | 60% | 40% | 60% |
More: PSV/Eindhoven W season stats · De Graafschap W season stats · Vrouwen Eredivisie (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.