League One · Saturday, 26 September 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 53% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | no pick |
The result model puts Cambridge United at 47%, the draw at 24% and AFC Wimbledon at 29%, from expected goals of 1.74 and 1.34.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cambridge United have 5 in 7 this season (3 of 3 at home), AFC Wimbledon 2 in 7 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 46%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.74 for Cambridge United and 1.34 for AFC Wimbledon. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge United | 7 | 71% | 29% | 100% |
| AFC Wimbledon | 7 | 29% | 14% | 14% |
More: Cambridge United season stats · AFC Wimbledon season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.