National League · Saturday, 26 September 2026. Final score 3–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 60% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | no pick |
The result model puts Altrincham at 55%, the draw at 23% and AFC Hornchurch at 22%, from expected goals of 1.9 and 1.12.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Altrincham have 7 in 9 this season (4 of 4 at home), AFC Hornchurch 5 in 9 (4 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.9 for Altrincham and 1.12 for AFC Hornchurch. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altrincham | 9 | 78% | 22% | 78% |
| AFC Hornchurch | 9 | 56% | 22% | 33% |
More: Altrincham season stats · AFC Hornchurch season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.