National League · Saturday, 26 September 2026. Final score 5–1 (half-time 4–0). Before kick-off we rated it 64% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts Aldershot Town at 49%, the draw at 22% and Tamworth at 30%, from expected goals of 2.07 and 1.59.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Aldershot Town have 2 in 9 this season (1 of 4 at home), Tamworth 9 in 9 (5 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 69%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 2.07 for Aldershot Town and 1.59 for Tamworth. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldershot Town | 9 | 22% | 11% | 56% |
| Tamworth | 9 | 100% | 78% | 100% |
More: Aldershot Town season stats · Tamworth season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.