Damallsvenskan (W) · Saturday, 26 September 2026. Final score 3–0 (half-time 3–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 61% for over 2.5 goals. This game was not captured by our pre-kick-off freeze, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts AIK W at 55%, the draw at 24% and Växjö W at 21%, from expected goals of 1.75 and 0.98.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AIK W have 12 in 19 this season (6 of 10 at home), Växjö W 13 in 19 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 19 and 19 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.75 for AIK W and 0.98 for Växjö W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: AIK W season stats · Växjö W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.