Segunda · Saturday, 26 September 2026. Final score 3–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 50% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts AD Ceuta FC at 31%, the draw at 27% and Real Sociedad II at 42%, from expected goals of 1.19 and 1.44.
The league sets the starting point. Segunda has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AD Ceuta FC have 3 in 6 this season (0 of 3 at home), Real Sociedad II 3 in 6 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.19 for AD Ceuta FC and 1.44 for Real Sociedad II. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Ceuta FC | 6 | 50% | 33% | 50% |
| Real Sociedad II | 6 | 50% | 33% | 67% |
More: AD Ceuta FC season stats · Real Sociedad II season stats · Segunda table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.