Brasileirao (W) · Tuesday, 22 September 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 63% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Corinthians W at 65%, the draw at 19% and Bahia W at 17%, from expected goals of 2.42 and 1.16.
The league sets the starting point. Brasileirao (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Corinthians W have 13 in 20 this season (10 of 10 at home), Bahia W 11 in 20 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 20 and 20 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 69%, from expected goals of 2.42 for Corinthians W and 1.16 for Bahia W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians W | 20 | 65% | 60% | 60% |
| Bahia W | 20 | 55% | 30% | 65% |
More: Corinthians W season stats · Bahia W season stats · Brasileirao (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.