Liga I · Monday, 21 September 2026. Final score 2–3 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 45% for over 2.5 goals. This game was not captured by our pre-kick-off freeze, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Oţelul at 58%, the draw at 26% and Corvinul Hunedoara at 16%, from expected goals of 1.55 and 0.66.
The league sets the starting point. Liga I has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Oţelul have 4 in 9 this season (1 of 5 at home), Corvinul Hunedoara 2 in 9 (0 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 40%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 48% and 40%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 1.55 for Oţelul and 0.66 for Corvinul Hunedoara. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oţelul | 9 | 44% | 22% | 56% |
| Corvinul Hunedoara | 9 | 22% | 0% | 22% |
More: Oţelul season stats · Corvinul Hunedoara season stats · Liga I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.