Primera Nacional · Monday, 21 September 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 75% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 69% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% | 89% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 38% | 62% | No |
The result model puts Nueva Chicago at 45%, the draw at 34% and Patronato at 21%, from expected goals of 1.07 and 0.63.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Nueva Chicago have 7 in 29 this season (4 of 14 at home), Patronato 7 in 29 (3 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 27% and 27%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 29 and 29 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 28% and 27%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 28%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 24%, from expected goals of 1.07 for Nueva Chicago and 0.63 for Patronato. Folding in 30% of that view gives 27%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 31%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nueva Chicago | 29 | 24% | 10% | 28% |
| Patronato | 29 | 24% | 10% | 34% |
More: Nueva Chicago season stats · Patronato season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.