Liga MX · Monday, 21 September 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 51% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Club Queretaro at 53%, the draw at 26% and Leon at 21%, from expected goals of 1.6 and 0.91.
The league sets the starting point. Liga MX has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Club Queretaro have 4 in 7 this season (2 of 3 at home), Leon 3 in 8 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 53% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.6 for Club Queretaro and 0.91 for Leon. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Queretaro | 7 | 57% | 29% | 57% |
| Leon | 8 | 38% | 25% | 50% |
More: Club Queretaro season stats · Leon season stats · Liga MX table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.