NWSL (W) · Monday, 21 September 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 52% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Bay FC W at 38%, the draw at 24% and Racing Louisville W at 38%, from expected goals of 1.6 and 1.6.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bay FC W have 11 in 24 this season (5 of 11 at home), Racing Louisville W 18 in 24 (10 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 24 and 24 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 46% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.6 for Bay FC W and 1.6 for Racing Louisville W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bay FC W | 24 | 46% | 29% | 42% |
| Racing Louisville W | 24 | 75% | 42% | 75% |
More: Bay FC W season stats · Racing Louisville W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.