Meistriliiga · Sunday, 20 September 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 69% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Trans Narva at 11%, the draw at 16% and FC Levadia Tallinn at 73%, from expected goals of 0.9 and 2.56.
The league sets the starting point. Meistriliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Trans Narva have 19 in 28 this season (10 of 14 at home), FC Levadia Tallinn 21 in 28 (10 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 71%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 28 and 28 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 66% and 73%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 0.9 for Trans Narva and 2.56 for FC Levadia Tallinn. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trans Narva | 28 | 68% | 29% | 43% |
| FC Levadia Tallinn | 28 | 75% | 50% | 61% |
More: Trans Narva season stats · FC Levadia Tallinn season stats · Meistriliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.