Primera Clausura · Sunday, 20 September 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Sportivo Luqueno at 32%, the draw at 23% and Deportivo Recoleta at 45%, from expected goals of 1.53 and 1.83.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Clausura has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sportivo Luqueno have 8 in 10 this season (4 of 4 at home), Deportivo Recoleta 8 in 10 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 47% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1.53 for Sportivo Luqueno and 1.83 for Deportivo Recoleta. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportivo Luqueno | 10 | 80% | 20% | 60% |
| Deportivo Recoleta | 10 | 80% | 60% | 90% |
More: Sportivo Luqueno season stats · Deportivo Recoleta season stats · Primera Clausura table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.