Bundesliga · Sunday, 20 September 2026. Final score 3–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 56% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Red Bull Salzburg at 42%, the draw at 23% and Sturm Graz at 36%, from expected goals of 1.83 and 1.68.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Red Bull Salzburg have 3 in 6 this season (2 of 3 at home), Sturm Graz 2 in 6 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 45%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.83 for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.68 for Sturm Graz. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg | 6 | 50% | 33% | 67% |
| Sturm Graz | 6 | 33% | 17% | 67% |
More: Red Bull Salzburg season stats · Sturm Graz season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.