NB I · Sunday, 20 September 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 62% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Nyiregyhaza at 19%, the draw at 22% and Ferencvarosi TC at 58%, from expected goals of 1.02 and 1.94.
The league sets the starting point. NB I has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Nyiregyhaza have 5 in 7 this season (2 of 3 at home), Ferencvarosi TC 4 in 6 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 60% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.02 for Nyiregyhaza and 1.94 for Ferencvarosi TC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyiregyhaza | 7 | 71% | 29% | 71% |
| Ferencvarosi TC | 6 | 67% | 33% | 50% |
More: Nyiregyhaza season stats · Ferencvarosi TC season stats · NB I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.