PSL · Sunday, 20 September 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 34% for over 2.5 goals. This game was not captured by our pre-kick-off freeze, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 66% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 83% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts Milford FC at 49%, the draw at 29% and Durban City at 23%, from expected goals of 1.35 and 0.83.
The league sets the starting point. PSL has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Milford FC have 2 in 7 this season (2 of 3 at home), Durban City 0 in 6 (0 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 30% and 24%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 30% and 24%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 28%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.35 for Milford FC and 0.83 for Durban City. Folding in 30% of that view gives 31%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 34%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milford FC | 7 | 29% | 14% | 29% |
| Durban City | 6 | 0% | 0% | 17% |
More: Milford FC season stats · Durban City season stats · PSL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.