Serie B · Sunday, 20 September 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–1). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Londrina at 36%, the draw at 31% and Fortaleza EC at 34%, from expected goals of 1.08 and 1.05.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 41% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Londrina have 18 in 28 this season (8 of 14 at home), Fortaleza EC 9 in 28 (3 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 36%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.08 for Londrina and 1.05 for Fortaleza EC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Londrina | 28 | 64% | 32% | 54% |
| Fortaleza EC | 28 | 32% | 11% | 39% |
More: Londrina season stats · Fortaleza EC season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.