Pro League · Sunday, 20 September 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 56% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Kortrijk at 42%, the draw at 26% and SK Beveren at 31%, from expected goals of 1.49 and 1.24.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kortrijk have 4 in 6 this season (2 of 3 at home), SK Beveren 4 in 6 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.49 for Kortrijk and 1.24 for SK Beveren. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kortrijk | 6 | 67% | 17% | 17% |
| SK Beveren | 6 | 67% | 33% | 17% |
More: Kortrijk season stats · SK Beveren season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.