Serie B · Sunday, 20 September 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 54% for over 2.5 goals. This game was not captured by our pre-kick-off freeze, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Hellas Verona at 69%, the draw at 19% and Vicenza Virtus at 13%, from expected goals of 2.27 and 0.86.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hellas Verona have 3 in 4 this season (2 of 2 at home), Vicenza Virtus 3 in 4 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 2.27 for Hellas Verona and 0.86 for Vicenza Virtus. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona | 4 | 75% | 50% | 75% |
| Vicenza Virtus | 4 | 75% | 50% | 75% |
More: Hellas Verona season stats · Vicenza Virtus season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.