Serie B · Sunday, 20 September 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 60% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Goias at 41%, the draw at 30% and Avai at 29%, from expected goals of 1.21 and 0.96.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 41% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Goias have 9 in 28 this season (4 of 13 at home), Avai 12 in 28 (7 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 42%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 28 and 28 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 37% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 40%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.21 for Goias and 0.96 for Avai. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Goias season stats · Avai season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.