Super Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026. Final score 3–0 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 52% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts FK Crvena Zvezda at 80%, the draw at 14% and Radnicki NIS at 5%, from expected goals of 2.42 and 0.47.
The league sets the starting point. Super Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FK Crvena Zvezda have 5 in 9 this season (4 of 5 at home), Radnicki NIS 2 in 8 (1 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 44%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 2.42 for FK Crvena Zvezda and 0.47 for Radnicki NIS. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 9 | 56% | 33% | 33% |
| Radnicki NIS | 8 | 25% | 13% | 38% |
More: FK Crvena Zvezda season stats · Radnicki NIS season stats · Super Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.