Süper Lig · Sunday, 20 September 2026. Final score 8–0 (half-time 5–0). Before kick-off we rated it 59% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 8, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Fenerbahçe at 71%, the draw at 17% and Eyüpspor at 11%, from expected goals of 2.4 and 0.85.
The league sets the starting point. Süper Lig has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fenerbahçe have 3 in 5 this season (2 of 2 at home), Eyüpspor 2 in 5 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 2.4 for Fenerbahçe and 0.85 for Eyüpspor. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 5 | 60% | 20% | 60% |
| Eyüpspor | 5 | 40% | 0% | 20% |
More: Fenerbahçe season stats · Eyüpspor season stats · Süper Lig table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.