La Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 52% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Deportivo La Coruna at 36%, the draw at 26% and Real Betis at 39%, from expected goals of 1.39 and 1.46.
The league sets the starting point. La Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Deportivo La Coruna have 2 in 6 this season (1 of 3 at home), Real Betis 2 in 6 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 47% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.39 for Deportivo La Coruna and 1.46 for Real Betis. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruna | 6 | 33% | 33% | 83% |
| Real Betis | 6 | 33% | 17% | 33% |
More: Deportivo La Coruna season stats · Real Betis season stats · La Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.