Liga Profesional · Sunday, 20 September 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 65% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 63% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 59% | No |
The result model puts Belgrano Cordoba at 60%, the draw at 26% and Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at 14%, from expected goals of 1.56 and 0.59.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 34% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Belgrano Cordoba have 9 in 29 this season (5 of 14 at home), Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 7 in 25 (5 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 33% and 31%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 29 and 25 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 33% and 31%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 33%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.56 for Belgrano Cordoba and 0.59 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto. Folding in 30% of that view gives 34%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 37%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgrano Cordoba | 29 | 31% | 14% | 41% |
| Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 25 | 28% | 4% | 24% |
More: Belgrano Cordoba season stats · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.