League Two · Saturday, 19 September 2026. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–3). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 62% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Kelty Hearts at 56%, the draw at 22% and Edinburgh City at 23%, from expected goals of 2.09 and 1.28.
The league sets the starting point. League Two has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kelty Hearts have 5 in 7 this season (3 of 3 at home), Edinburgh City 5 in 7 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 2.09 for Kelty Hearts and 1.28 for Edinburgh City. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelty Hearts | 7 | 71% | 57% | 71% |
| Edinburgh City | 7 | 71% | 57% | 57% |
More: Kelty Hearts season stats · Edinburgh City season stats · League Two table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.