1. Lig · Saturday, 19 September 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 57% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Batman Petrolspor at 44%, the draw at 24% and Bursaspor at 32%, from expected goals of 1.72 and 1.43.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Lig has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Batman Petrolspor have 5 in 7 this season (2 of 3 at home), Bursaspor 5 in 7 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.72 for Batman Petrolspor and 1.43 for Bursaspor. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batman Petrolspor | 7 | 71% | 43% | 57% |
| Bursaspor | 7 | 71% | 29% | 57% |
More: Batman Petrolspor season stats · Bursaspor season stats · 1. Lig table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.