Primera Nacional · Saturday, 19 September 2026. Final score 4–2 (half-time 2–2). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 30% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10% | 90% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 39% | 61% | No |
The result model puts Atletico DE Rafaela at 39%, the draw at 35% and San Martin Tucuman at 26%, from expected goals of 0.97 and 0.73.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atletico DE Rafaela have 7 in 29 this season (4 of 14 at home), San Martin Tucuman 8 in 29 (2 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 27% and 29%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 29 and 29 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 27% and 28%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 28%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 24%, from expected goals of 0.97 for Atletico DE Rafaela and 0.73 for San Martin Tucuman. Folding in 30% of that view gives 27%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 30%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico DE Rafaela | 29 | 24% | 7% | 31% |
| San Martin Tucuman | 29 | 28% | 7% | 41% |
More: Atletico DE Rafaela season stats · San Martin Tucuman season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.