Eredivisie · Saturday, 19 September 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 67% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts ADO Den Haag at 40%, the draw at 23% and Cambuur at 37%, from expected goals of 1.77 and 1.69.
The league sets the starting point. Eredivisie has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. ADO Den Haag have 4 in 6 this season (2 of 2 at home), Cambuur 6 in 6 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 71%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 1.77 for ADO Den Haag and 1.69 for Cambuur. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | 6 | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| Cambuur | 6 | 100% | 83% | 67% |
More: ADO Den Haag season stats · Cambuur season stats · Eredivisie table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.