Women's Championship (W) · Friday, 18 September 2026. Final score 3–0 (half-time 3–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 57% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Wolverhampton W at 47%, the draw at 25% and Burnley W at 28%, from expected goals of 1.62 and 1.2.
The league sets the starting point. Women's Championship (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Wolverhampton W have 1 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Burnley W 1 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.62 for Wolverhampton W and 1.2 for Burnley W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton W | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Burnley W | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
More: Wolverhampton W season stats · Burnley W season stats · Women's Championship (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.