NWSL (W) · Thursday, 17 September 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 51% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Denver Summit W at 53%, the draw at 24% and Bay FC W at 23%, from expected goals of 1.74 and 1.05.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Denver Summit W have 13 in 23 this season (8 of 11 at home), Bay FC W 10 in 23 (5 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 46%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 23 and 23 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.74 for Denver Summit W and 1.05 for Bay FC W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Summit W | 23 | 57% | 30% | 61% |
| Bay FC W | 23 | 43% | 26% | 39% |
More: Denver Summit W season stats · Bay FC W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.