La Liga · Wednesday, 16 September 2026. Final score 4–0 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 52% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Atletico Madrid at 64%, the draw at 21% and Osasuna at 15%, from expected goals of 2.07 and 0.87.
The league sets the starting point. La Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atletico Madrid have 4 in 5 this season (1 of 2 at home), Osasuna 2 in 5 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 51% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 2.07 for Atletico Madrid and 0.87 for Osasuna. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 5 | 80% | 40% | 40% |
| Osasuna | 5 | 40% | 20% | 40% |
More: Atletico Madrid season stats · Osasuna season stats · La Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.