National League · Tuesday, 15 September 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 66% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Harrogate Town at 53%, the draw at 21% and AFC Fylde at 26%, from expected goals of 2.25 and 1.53.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Harrogate Town have 6 in 7 this season (4 of 4 at home), AFC Fylde 6 in 7 (4 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 73%, from expected goals of 2.25 for Harrogate Town and 1.53 for AFC Fylde. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrogate Town | 7 | 86% | 71% | 86% |
| AFC Fylde | 7 | 86% | 71% | 86% |
More: Harrogate Town season stats · AFC Fylde season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.