Eredivisie · Sunday, 13 September 2026. Final score 4–1 (half-time 2–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 72% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 28% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 67% | 33% | Yes |
The result model puts PSV Eindhoven at 70%, the draw at 15% and Sparta Rotterdam at 15%, from expected goals of 3.15 and 1.48.
The league sets the starting point. Eredivisie has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. PSV Eindhoven have 5 in 5 this season (2 of 2 at home), Sparta Rotterdam 4 in 5 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 70% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 74% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 84%, from expected goals of 3.15 for PSV Eindhoven and 1.48 for Sparta Rotterdam. Folding in 30% of that view gives 72%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 100% | 80% | 100% |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 5 | 80% | 60% | 80% |
More: PSV Eindhoven season stats · Sparta Rotterdam season stats · Eredivisie table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.