Liga 2 · Saturday, 12 September 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 42% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Felgueiras 1932 at 35%, the draw at 29% and Penafiel at 36%, from expected goals of 1.14 and 1.15.
The league sets the starting point. Liga 2 has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Felgueiras 1932 have 1 in 5 this season (1 of 2 at home), Penafiel 3 in 5 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 40% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 39% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 40%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.14 for Felgueiras 1932 and 1.15 for Penafiel. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felgueiras 1932 | 5 | 20% | 0% | 60% |
| Penafiel | 5 | 60% | 40% | 40% |
More: Felgueiras 1932 season stats · Penafiel season stats · Liga 2 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.